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Optimistic macroeconomic trend 2010 agricultural machinery industry is worth looking forward to

optimistic macroeconomic trend 2010 agricultural machinery industry is worth looking forward to

China Construction machinery information

Guide: in the face of the serious impact of the international financial crisis, in 2009, the central government sized up the situation and timely issued a series of macroeconomic policies, including 40000billion yuan of investment, to stimulate domestic demand and stimulate the economy. In particular, subsidies for the purchase of agricultural machinery and tools are listed as one of the important measures to expand domestic demand, and the purchase of agricultural machinery and tools is continuously increased

facing the serious impact of the international financial crisis, in 2009, the central government sized up the situation and timely introduced a series of macroeconomic policies, including 4trillion yuan of investment, to stimulate domestic demand and stimulate the economy. In particular, the subsidy for the purchase of agricultural machinery and tools was listed as one of the important measures to expand domestic demand, the subsidy for the purchase of agricultural machinery and tools was continuously increased, and the strategy of supporting agriculture and benefiting agriculture was further implemented, which led China's agricultural machinery industry to take the lead in getting out of the shadow of the global financial crisis, and achieved a historic breakthrough in all economic indicators such as the total production and sales volume of products in the whole industry, sales revenue, enterprise operating profits and so on. According to the estimates of relevant departments, by the end of 2009, the gross domestic product and sales revenue of the national agricultural machinery industry will both exceed 230billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.1%; The implementation of farming plastics in all fields nationwide was accelerated, and the level of integrated mechanization was 48.8%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year; The operating profit of agricultural machinery industry is expected to exceed 10billion yuan

2010 is the last year of implementing the eleventh five year plan, and it is also a key year to win an all-round victory in coping with the impact of the international financial crisis and lay the foundation for a good start to the twelfth five year plan. General Secretary Hu Jintao pointed out at the new year tea party of the CPPCC National Committee that at present, China continues to be in an important period of strategic opportunities for economic and social development and a period of prominent social contradictions, and the task of maintaining steady and rapid economic development and maintaining social harmony and stability is arduous. The central economic work conference, which closed on December 7, 2009, took strengthening economic restructuring and improving the quality and efficiency of economic development as the central task of economic work in 2010. The meeting pointed out that we should maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies and continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The meeting also clearly expounded the focus of China's economic work in 2010 through five "more emphasis", that is, more emphasis on improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth, more emphasis on promoting the transformation of the mode of economic development and economic structural adjustment, more emphasis on promoting reform and opening up and independent innovation, enhancing the vitality and momentum of economic growth, more emphasis on improving people's livelihood and maintaining social harmony and stability, We should pay more attention to the overall domestic and international situation and strive to achieve steady and rapid economic development

most economists and industry insiders at home and abroad are cautiously optimistic about China's macroeconomic trend in 2010, and agree that the "sitting on eight and looking at ten" of GDP is the basic expectation of China's economy. Zhang Liqun, Deputy Secretary General of the academic committee of the development research center of the State Council and a famous scholar, predicts that the external environment will remain severe in 2010, but will not deteriorate further. With the improvement of adaptability and competitiveness of export enterprises, it is expected that exports will end negative growth and achieve single digit growth. Domestic demand will shift from government investment to moderate growth driven by market forces. Under the condition that the consumption policies supporting families to buy houses and cars remain unchanged, with the improvement of employment and income situation and the continuous improvement and increase of housing and automobile supply, it is expected that the upgrading activities of consumption structure will remain relatively active, and residents' consumption will continue to maintain a high level of growth. In terms of investment growth, real estate investment will increase by 30% to 40%, and become the main force to promote investment growth; In addition, the investment of enterprises will gradually become active. Driven by market forces, the investment growth rate will remain at about 20%. According to this prediction, China's GDP growth rate will remain at about 9.5% in 2010

as for the situation of agricultural machinery industry, according to the data released by the Ministry of agriculture, by the end of 2009, the level of comprehensive mechanization of farming, planting and harvesting in China had reached about 48.8%. At present, the overall development level of Agricultural Mechanization in China is in a historical period from the intermediate stage to the advanced stage. With the continuous implementation of the national policy of supporting and benefiting agriculture and the gradual increase of agricultural investment, the next 10 to 15 years will be the best period for the rapid development of Agricultural Mechanization in China, and also the golden period for the market operation of agricultural equipment products. Specific analysis can be verified from several aspects

first, the international and domestic macro-economy has gradually recovered, laying a solid economic foundation for the sustained prosperity of the agricultural machinery market. Judging from the macro situation, in 2010, although the impact of the international economic crisis still exists, the foundation of the world economic recovery is not stable, and there are still some uncertain factors in the economic operation at home and abroad, the overall improvement of China's economy is irreversible. In order to ensure the sustained and stable economic and social growth, expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumption will continue to be implemented and promoted as an important means for the government to stimulate economic growth. The current economic policies to stimulate domestic demand will not end, but its breadth and depth will be further strengthened. On the other hand, according to the prediction of international authoritative institutions, the global economy grew by 3.1% in 2009, while the elasticity of China's exports in the world total was 5.3. According to this calculation, China's foreign trade export business is expected to rebound to about 16.43% in 2010, and the basic market situation of macroeconomic "internal hot and external cold" since the fourth quarter of 2008 will be fundamentally changed

second, agricultural production has achieved another bumper harvest, farmers' income has continued to grow, and the market demand for agricultural machinery products has increased. In 2009, the total grain output of the country is expected to be 1061.6 billion jin, a record high for raw material trading and distribution platforms. It has increased production for six consecutive years and exceeded trillion Jin for the first time for three consecutive years. The per capita net income of farmers exceeded the 5000 yuan mark for the first time, with an actual increase of more than 6%. On the one hand, as farmers' income from agricultural production increases, their enthusiasm for purchasing agricultural machinery will be further enhanced. On the other hand, with the further expansion of the implementation scope of various social security in rural areas and the further improvement of security standards, the actual payment capacity of farmers is gradually increasing, which will inevitably become an important endogenous force driving the continuous growth of the demand for agricultural machinery in China

third, the national food security strategy and cultivated land protection policy have provided a sound basis for the development of the agricultural machinery market. In order to improve the comprehensive production capacity of grain and build a security system in line with the national food security, the outline of the medium and long term plan for national food security clearly puts forward the strategic goal that China's food self-sufficiency rate should be stabilized at more than 95%, the national cultivated land ownership should be no less than 1.8 billion mu, and the basic farmland should be no less than 1.56 billion mu. A layer of grease should be coated on the surface of the soil to prevent rust. In order to achieve this strategic goal, a large number of strategic projects for food security, such as the Heilongjiang 100 billion jin grain project, the Jilin 10 billion jin grain project, the construction project of the core area of grain production in Henan Province, and the transformation project of medium and low yield fields, which have been promoted and implemented nationwide, are bound to drive a new round of strong market demand for agricultural machinery products

fourth, the vigorous development of Agricultural Machinery Cooperatives has provided a broad market development space for agricultural machinery products. According to the data provided by the Ministry of agriculture, by the end of 2008, there were 165000 agricultural machinery operation service organizations across the country, including 7860 agricultural machinery professional cooperatives officially registered by the Department of industry and commerce, with a year-on-year increase of 77.2%. In 2009, the No. 1 central document, the national economic work conference and the national rural work conference have put forward clear requirements for accelerating the development of farmers' professional cooperatives. At the same time, relevant departments have issued a series of fiscal, tax, financial and other support policies. The Ministry of agriculture has also specially issued the opinions on accelerating the development of agricultural machinery professional cooperatives, and proposed that by 2015, there will be at least one agricultural machinery professional cooperative in each township, The total number of service farmers has reached the development goal of more than 1/4 of the total number of farmers. It can be predicted that, driven by these policies, China's agricultural machinery service cooperation organization will develop by leaps and bounds in the next few years. Agricultural Machinery Cooperatives can not only realize the mechanization of scattered plots that were not suitable for mechanized operations originally belonging to families, and realize the dream of agricultural machinery for scattered farmers who are unable to purchase agricultural machinery alone, but also promote the development of agricultural machinery products to high-power, compound, efficient and energy-saving. It is not difficult to judge that with the rapid development of Agricultural Machinery Cooperatives, the agricultural machinery market will usher in more and more development space

fifth, the rural financing and loan environment has been improved, and the practical purchasing ability of farmers for agricultural machinery products has been enhanced. In recent years, the state has always attached importance to and actively promoted the reform of the rural financial system. On the one hand, through policy support, government support and market operation, it has actively promoted the development of new rural financial organizations such as rural rural banks and small loan companies, on the other hand, it has focused on promoting the pilot work of agricultural insurance and rural guarantee business. In particular, policies such as allowing farmers to use the agricultural machinery to be purchased as collateral to lend to financial institutions have significantly improved the financing environment for farmers' loans. The improvement of farmers' purchasing power will certainly promote the agricultural machinery market in 2010

sixth, the implementation of agricultural machinery purchase subsidies has continued to increase, which has an increasingly obvious stimulating effect on the market demand for agricultural machinery. At the executive meeting of the State Council held on December 9, 2009, Premier Wen Jiabao clearly pointed out that "we should continue to implement the subsidy policy for the purchase of agricultural machinery and appropriately increase the scale of subsidy funds." It is also reported that the subsidy funds for agricultural machinery arranged by the central government in 2010 will be between 15-18 billion yuan, an increase of 15% to 40% over last year's 13 billion yuan. If the local subsidies of provinces, cities and districts are added, the total scale of agricultural machinery purchase subsidies in 2010 is expected to be about 20billion yuan. The pulling effect of this on the national agricultural machinery market will greatly exceed the strength and scale of 2009, and further promote the development of agricultural machinery industry

based on the above analysis, China's agricultural machinery industry will still show a steady and rapid growth trend in 2010. It is expected that the growth rate of the industry's production and sales scale will be between 15% and 18%. However, while seeing the appearance of prosperity, we must also pay full attention to some potential contradictions and severe tests that hinder the sustainable and steady development of China's agricultural machinery industry. For example, the characteristics of "early, fast and urgent" agricultural machinery purchase subsidies will become more and more obvious, and how production and operation enterprises arrange capacity reserves and cope with the market concentration demand that may form in the peak sales season will face a test. The contradiction between the production and operation enterprises' efforts to carry out public relations marketing, strive for subsidy indicators and ensure product quality and service follow-up will become more prominent. It is also an urgent problem for the government agricultural machinery authorities to strengthen work supervision and ensure that the subsidy funds are paid and settled on schedule

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