The hottest macroeconomic situation requires activ

  • Detail

The macroeconomic situation requires active fiscal policy transformation

the macroeconomic situation requires active fiscal policy transformation

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the growth mechanism of private investment is basically formed, and the adjustment of active fiscal policy will not affect economic growth. The main goal of implementing active fiscal policy in 1998 is to make up the gap between savings and investment, guide and start private investment by expanding national debt investment, Promote economic growth. Since 2002

the growth mechanism of private investment is basically formed, and the adjustment of active fiscal policy will not affect the trend of economic growth

the main goal of implementing active fiscal policy in 1998 is to make up the gap between savings and investment, guide and start private investment by expanding national debt investment, and promote economic growth. Since 2002, the investment of various non-state-owned economic sectors, including foreign investment, has increased significantly. In 2002, China even became the world's largest foreign capital attraction country. In 2003, it still reached a high level of $53billion, and the loan growth was also rapid. From the perspective of investment sources, the growth rate of self raised funds, utilization of foreign capital and domestic loans in 2003 and the first half of 2004 was relatively high. For example, the actual utilization of foreign capital in the past five years amounted to more than 230 billion US dollars, equivalent to nearly half of the total amount of foreign capital attracted in the past 25 years, and the proportion of foreign capital in the fixed asset investment of the whole society increased to more than 10%. The role of national debt investment in the investment of the whole society is gradually declining. For example, the proportion of long-term construction national debt in the total financial expenditure has decreased from 9.4% in 2000 to 5.9% in 2003, and the proportion of long-term construction national debt in the total issuance of national debt has decreased from 32.2% in 2000 to 21.8% in 2003. It can be seen that the investment structure of the whole society has changed significantly, and the excessive dependence on national debt funds has changed significantly. The further fading out of the active fiscal policy will not affect the growth momentum of social investment and the overall economic development trend

the fading out of active fiscal policy is conducive to curbing excessive investment in some industries

since the second half of 2003, the investment in fixed assets in the whole society has increased rapidly, and the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in the whole society has increased from 26.7% in 2003 to 43% in the first quarter of 2004. The growth rate of investment in some departments has even reached or exceeded 100%, such as 96.3% growth rate of steel, 130% growth rate of cement, and others such as electrolytic aluminum, coal The growth rate of investment in real estate and automobiles is also high. The rapid growth of investment and the relative lag and pressure in raw materials, transportation, coal, electricity, oil and transportation have plagued the healthy, coordinated and sustainable development of China's economy

investment in treasury bond projects and a large amount of investment supporting treasury bond funds are the direct driving force for the rapid growth of investment. In the past few years, too much treasury bond funds have been involved in operational and market competitive projects and triggered a large number of investment in supporting projects (self raised by enterprises and bank loans). Countless local and enterprise "Treasury bond" projects have intensified investment overheating, low-level repeated construction and departmental structural imbalance. The lack of supporting funds for national debt projects has led to the formation of a large number of half projects and the accumulation of bank non-performing loan funds. For example, Jiangsu Province arranged 411 treasury bond projects in, with a total investment of 95.42 billion yuan. The total investment of hydraulic universal testing machine was 500 million yuan. By 2002, the actual investment completed was 85.601 billion yuan, of which the cumulative amount of treasury bonds was only 11.135 billion yuan, accounting for about 12%, and the need for supporting funds from local governments and enterprises accounted for 88%, that is, the direct amplification effect of treasury bond funds was 9 times, and a large number of enterprises relied on Treasury bond projects to eat, How much additional investment in peripheral funds (not included in treasury bond supporting funds) to provide capacity support for treasury bond projects? Huge supporting funds have overwhelmed local governments and enterprises. In order to get to Treasury bond projects, local governments and enterprises either fabricate feasibility reports, exaggerate the supporting capacity of funds and the expected benefits of the project, and engage in fishing projects, or they are unable to raise sufficient supporting funds, and cannot start and complete the project on time, especially in the underdeveloped western regions

therefore, appropriately reducing the investment of national debt funds in general production and operation departments and infrastructure fields with operating income will help guide the transformation of bank loan investment and the reduction of credit scale, especially help to strengthen macro-control measures. At present, investment in production fields is growing too fast. The gap of local supporting funds for treasury bond projects has amplified local government liabilities and non-performing bank loans, resulting in excessive investment growth and structural imbalance

moderate adjustment of active fiscal policy is conducive to curbing inflationary pressure

inflationary pressure caused by excessive growth of monetary loans caused by excessive investment growth increases. Since 2004, with the high growth of investment and the rapid rise of the economy, the money supply has increased rapidly. The monthly M2 has increased by 16.2% on the basis of the 19.6% growth in 2003. This growth rate has broken the economic balance between loan growth and economic growth and changes in the overall price level over the years, resulting in the shadow of deflation has just gone, and signs of inflation are emerging again: the price index growth rate in 2003 was 1.2%, which finally reversed the negative growth (-0.8%) in 2002, However, in 2004, the price of means of production rose by more than 5%, and the CPI index rose by 3.6% in the first half of the year. Among them, the monthly growth rate in June was 5%, which was unprecedented in recent years, and the account opening became stronger. By appropriately adjusting the investment of national debt and reducing the investment in production projects and infrastructure, banks can be guided to correspondingly reduce the scale of loans to urban construction and real estate industry, so as to curb the market demand for means of production and investment goods, reduce the increase of bank non-performing loans, and provide loose conditions for reducing money supply and curbing inflation

to improve the efficiency of the use of treasury funds and the effect of macro-control, it is urgent to adjust the active fiscal policy

there are many problems in the arrangement and use of treasury funds. According to the investigation of treasury bond funds in Gansu, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places, it is found that some treasury bond projects cannot be started and completed on time due to insufficient preparatory work, resulting in idle treasury bond funds. For example, 310million yuan of treasury bond funds for transportation and water conservancy treasury bond projects in four cities under the jurisdiction of Jiangsu Province were idle due to insufficient preliminary preparations. Some treasury bond projects have made serious mistakes or repeated major changes in design, exploration and construction, resulting in a large increase in the volume of work, delays in the construction period or the formation of half finished projects, or lax budget control, lack of standardization of fund operation, misappropriation of construction funds for the purchase of stocks and State bonds, resulting in huge losses. The embezzlement, waste and misappropriation of national debt funds are serious. National debt technical transformation projects and agricultural support funds are diverted to buy stocks and national debt. Some national debt projects have become tofu dregs due to poor quality, such as the hidden works of Yangtze River embankments and many national debt highways; Some treasury bond projects focus on input and light output, with serious losses, such as many treasury bond sewage plant projects, which will soon meet with the automotive industry and related enterprises. The construction of Yuguan is not in place, making it difficult to play a normal role after the completion of the project. It is seriously idle, or the operation cost is high, and the financial burden is increased because the income cannot make ends meet. There are also some problems in the construction financing and management system of sewage plants. For example, the construction of sewage plants in various regions is funded by the state finance, the management part is responsible by the local finance, and after completion, the local finance is responsible for the operation, and the sewage plants are managed as public institutions. Due to the high construction cost, high operation cost (overstaffed staff, non market management) and low sewage collection fee, a large number of sewage plants are difficult to operate normally. According to statistics, more than half of the more than 500 sewage plants in the country cannot operate normally

the low efficiency of the use of national debt funds has led to the reduction of the efficiency of fixed capital investment in the whole society to a certain extent. According to statistics, the marginal output rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society rose from 1.8 in the "sixth five year plan" period to 4.49 and 4.99 in the "Ninth Five Year Plan" and "Tenth Five Year Plan", which is directly related to the increase of national debt projects and the expansion of supporting funds, many mistakes, serious waste and low efficiency. In order to reverse many problems of national debt construction investment and improve the use effect of national debt funds, on the basis of improving the investment direction, distribution plan and supervision method of national debt funds, appropriately reducing national debt construction investment is the fundamental solution

the positive changes in the international market have created a good external environment for the transformation of active fiscal policy

the improving international economic environment has provided favorable conditions for the fade out of active fiscal policy. Since 2002, the world economy has come out of the trough and stepped into a stable upward channel. In 2003, the world economic growth rate reached 3.8%, a full percentage point higher than that in 2002, while the IMF predicts that the world economic growth rate will reach 4.6% in 2004. The annual average growth rate of the world economy in is expected to reach 3.2% or even higher, indicating that the fifth long wave of the world economy is gradually taking shape. The economic situation of China's three major export markets is also very optimistic. The average annual growth rate of China's exports in the past two years has been more than 30%. Despite the decline in the export tax rebate rate, the intensification of foreign anti-dumping on China's export products and other adverse factors, China's international trade continued to maintain a rapid development trend in the first half of 2004, with the total export volume reaching US $258.08 billion, an increase of 35.7% year-on-year. Except for January, the import and export have been maintained at more than 20% for 23 consecutive months, of which the growth rate in 19 months is more than 30%, and the export exceeded US $50billion a month for the first time in June. China's accession to the WTO and some countries' recognition of China's market economy status have laid a better foundation for China to expand exports. At the same time, in the five years from 1998 to 2003, China's economic aggregate, the scale of foreign trade and the international ranking of foreign exchange reserves have also greatly improved, which has also provided China with stronger adjustment strength and room to cope with the challenges of international economic fluctuations, as Elbegdorj said. This shows that the current international market conditions faced by China are different from those in 1998, and it is no longer necessary to provide preferential support for export expansion projects through treasury bond funds

active fiscal transformation is conducive to the improvement of the market economy and the implementation of the scientific concept of development

the planned spring tension and compression testing machine, spring change testing machine and spring fatigue testing machine of national debt fund arrangement have strengthened the administrative characteristics of national finance and delayed the establishment process of public finance. Improving the market economy requires more use of economic and legal means to develop the economy rather than administrative planning methods. The defects of the national debt fund arrangement system lead to the return and unfairness of the instruction planning system. The planned arrangement of treasury bond funds and soft budget constraints have led to a large number of "running for money", which has encouraged enterprises to seek the mayor without seeking the market. The direct participation of the national development and Reform Commission in the arrangement of treasury bond funds and projects has greatly enlarged the role of the government in directly controlling investment and economic development. The highly centralized administrative system is further highlighted through treasury bond projects and fund arrangements. For example, the national development and Reform Commission replaces local governments in the arrangement of treasury bond investment projects and even directly arranges them to townships, villages and households, regardless of the importance and amount of the project, It should be reported to the national development and Reform Commission for approval or to the national development and Reform Commission for fund arrangement after being submitted by local governments for approval. For example, in the actual treasury bond investment plan and budget, 30400 local investment projects were subsidized, 6162 projects were directly arranged by the national development and Reform Commission to townships, villages and households, with treasury bond funds of 2.27 billion yuan, and 2506 projects were indirectly arranged to townships, villages and households through bundling, with Treasury bond funds of 103.2 billion yuan

the Treasury bond funds focus on the implementation of state-owned enterprises, while it is very difficult for private enterprises to enter the Treasury bond projects. For example, a private enterprise in Shandong developed the tracking solar power generation technology and obtained the national technology patent appraisal, but did not get the Treasury bond funds support

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI