In the first half of the year, China's economy mai

2022-09-21
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In the first half of the year, China's economy maintained a steady and positive development trend

in the first half of the year, China's economy maintained a steady and positive development trend

China Construction machinery information

on July 31, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy economic work in the second half of the year. In the second half of the year, under the background of a more complex and volatile external environment, how to continue the steady and positive development trend of China's economy, how to prevent financial risks while serving the real economy, and how to resolutely curb the rise of house prices through macro-control, an industry personage who did not want to be named made a positive and clear answer one by one through the analysis of a 1700 word conference communique. We have particularly noticed that the three "firsts" are full of new ideas, which not only show the strategic determination of the central government to "fly across the clouds calmly" under complex situations, but also reflect the determination to adhere to the general tone of seeking progress in stability and promote high-quality development "to hold fast to the green mountains"

first, it is the first time to set the current situation with "change in stability". In the first half of the year, China's economy maintained a steady and positive development trend. In the first half of the year, the GDP growth rate was 6.8%, and it has been operating stably in the medium and high-speed growth range of 6.7% to 6.9% for 12 consecutive quarters. While fully affirming the achievements of economic development in the first half of the year, this meeting used "change in stability" for the first time to set the tone of the current and second half economic situation

previously, our common words for economic judgment were "good in stability" and "progress in stability", but this time we proposed "change in stability". The author believes that "change" is related to two major factors. On the one hand, it refers to the changes in the external environment caused by the Sino US economic and trade war. Since March 2018, the United States has successively begun to impose tariffs on Chinese exports, and China has also taken countermeasures. On June 15, the U.S. government released a list of goods subject to tariff increases, which will impose 25% tariffs on about $50billion of goods imported from China, of which about $34billion of goods will be subject to tariff increases from July 6, 2018. Recently, the United States announced that it would raise the tax increase from 10% to 25% on China's 200billion products exported to the United States, and listed more than 40 prohibited Chinese enterprises, which can be described as giving full play to the means of extreme pressure. It can be judged that the economic and trade war launched by the United States against China may be the biggest uncertainty facing China's development in the coming period, and may have an impact on the operation of financial markets, the development of key industries such as electronic information, and the production and investment expectations of enterprises. On the other hand, domestically, the economy is in the key stage of structural adjustment and transformation of growth drivers, and the downward pressure has increased. First, investment demand slowed down. Since this year, the growth rate of investment has continued to slow down. In the first half of the year, fixed asset investment increased by 6%, down 1.5 percentage points from the first quarter. Among them, the growth rate of infrastructure investment fell to 7.3% from 19% last year. Second, the growth rate of consumer demand fell. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 9.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the first quarter. Third, there is still a gap between the old and new kinetic energy conversion, and the key core technology also has the problem of being controlled by others

however, these are not enough to change the fundamentals of China's economic development potential, toughness, stamina and long-term improvement. The improvement of the appearance of household appliances can not stop the pace of China's economic transformation and upgrading. The problems in the current economic operation occur in the process of economic structure reform, which is inevitable. Among them, there are cyclical factors, but more importantly, structural and institutional factors. Therefore, we should grasp the main external and internal contradictions of current economic development and take targeted measures to solve them

second, it is the first time to coordinate the work of economic and social development with "six stabilities". Based on the major judgment of "changes in stability" of the current economic situation, in the second half of the year, in order to maintain the overall stability of economic and social development and maintain the steady and healthy development of the economy, the "six stabilities" first proposed at the meeting is highly targeted, "we should do a good job in stabilizing employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, investment and expectations", covering all aspects of economic and social development. "Six stabilities" has not only become the general tone of this meeting, but also will become the "bull nose" and "baton" of all work in the second half of the year. We should strengthen overall planning and coordination, form policy synergy, implement policies accurately, and work solidly and carefully. Only in this way can we keep the economy running in a reasonable range

"stabilizing employment" is put in a more prominent position in the "six stabilities", It highlights that solving the stability of employment is the top priority of current economic development, which can be divided into wedge-shaped fixtures (referring to the priority of adopting an inclined plane). In order to reduce the negative impact of the Sino US economic and trade war, the primary task is to ensure the stability of employment. To this end, it is necessary to further understand the number and structure of employment personnel that may be affected by the Sino US economic and trade war, increase the implementation of precise assistance to affected areas, industries and enterprises, and maintain the stability of employment. "Stabilize finance" That is to better integrate the prevention, control and resolution of financial risks with serving the real economy. At present, China's economic and financial risks are generally controllable. To do a good job in the economic work in the second half of the year, we should grasp the strength and pace of deleveraging, coordinate the timing of the introduction of various policies, and improve the ability and willingness of finance to serve the real economy through mechanism innovation, so that finance can truly become the blood of the real economy. "Stabilizing investment" is to combine investment with making up for weaknesses and the needs of people's livelihood, increase efforts to make up for weaknesses in the field of infrastructure, especially in the implementation of public services, and, together with expanding consumption, effectively play the "ballast" role of domestic demand. "Stabilizing foreign trade" means actively resolving the current foreign trade impact, promoting trade diversification, relying on the high-quality and high-level promotion of the "the Belt and Road" construction, and taking the overseas production capacity cooperation Park as the platform, vigorously supporting enterprises to develop diversified international markets. "Stabilizing foreign investment" is to continue to expand opening-up, focus on the goal of creating a world-class business environment, innovate and improve market supervision, improve government integrity, and effectively provide a business environment with comparable advantages for foreign investment. Recently, a series of policies such as the negative list of foreign investment launched by the Chinese government and the first China International Import Expo to be held in Shanghai in November this year are all major measures taken by the Chinese government to take the initiative to open its market to the world. "Stable expectation" is to enhance the expectation and consensus of all parties on the sustained improvement of China's economy through the expectation of macroeconomic stability, boost the investment confidence of entrepreneurs and stimulate the enthusiasm of private investment

third, it is the first time to "resolutely curb the rise of house prices". The meeting stressed that "we should adhere to the implementation of an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and improve the foresight, flexibility and effectiveness of the policy." It shows that the focus of future policies is to expand domestic demand through the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies, and stabilize economic growth through the expansion of effective investment. Making up for weaknesses will become the focus of current fiscal policies. While strengthening the efforts to make up for weaknesses in the field of infrastructure, we will continue to increase investment in the field of core technology, so as to enhance industrial innovation and develop new kinetic energy, and guide funds to better invest in the real economy, "Blood transfusion" for the real economy

whenever the economic downturn requires the introduction of stimulus policies, there will always be a sound that house prices are about to rise in the society, and the loosening of macro policies is often accompanied by the loosening of the property market. The meeting proposed "resolve to solve the problems of the real estate market", and for the first time there was a clear statement of "resolutely curb the rise of house prices". Compared with the previous central and local documents, the relevant expression is "resolutely curb the rapid rise of housing prices". The deletion of the word "too fast" indicates that high housing prices do great harm to the economy and pose a serious threat to social stability. The representative manufacturers of the central government to strictly control housing prices are Panzhihua Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Chengde Jianlong Steel Co., Ltd., and 4 chuanchuanwei Steel Co., Ltd., whose attitude towards the rise of factory prices is very firm, which highlights the determination of the central government to regulate and control, and also sends a clear signal that even if the macro policy is relaxed, funds are not allowed to flow into the real estate market

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